Cautious Sellers & Buyers in September

Last month we wrote about the seasonal trends of new listings. Let's check in on not only new listing activity, but market activity overall for September. We typically see both an increase in new listings and the number of sales in September. In short, both supply and demand typically increase at this juncture. If demand materially outpaces supply that pushes up prices. If supply and demand are evenly matched prices will remain steady. If supply outweighs demand, that will put downward pressure on prices.

In looking at homes (freehold detached, semis & townhouses) in the GTA as a whole, the number of sales rose about 1% from August to September. This is lower than typical, as they usually rise around 4%. The number of sales in September 2026 was 10% lower than September 2025. This broadly reflects less buyers entering the market. However, sellers also pulled back. Although new listings went up by 44% from August to September, when compared to last September, new listings were down 14%. Comparing September 2026 to September 2025, active listings were down 16%. Less potential home sellers are also coming to the table. On a year over year basis median prices for homes went down 6%. From August 2026 to September 2026 median home prices were effectively flat, rising .8%.

It appears that both buyers and sellers are behaving cautiously. This is reflected in the months of inventory for homes in the GTA. Months of inventory (MOI) expresses how long it would take to sell all of the homes on the market at the current rate of sales, if no new inventory was added. A low MOI would suggest a seller's market, a high MOI would suggest a buyers market. Traditionally 4-6 MOI is viewed as a balanced market. In September we had a 4.7 MOI for homes in the GTA.

It can be reckless to proclaim a completely accurate reading of cause & effect in the real estate market. It is difficult to know exactly what impact the trade war & other world events & trends are having on the public's decision making & financial capacity as it relates to housing. Covid 19 taught us to be careful about predicting what impact certain events will have on the housing market. In saying all of that - it does appear that people are either being directly impacted by the economic headwinds that Canada is experiencing, or it is making them uneasy which leads to pulling back on major housing decisions. The September stats also remind us that although there is seasonality to the housing market, every year is different, and ultimately predicting the market is a mug's game!

As always, don't hesitate to reach out to chat about your real estate needs & goals. We welcome your questions & inquiries and we appreciate your referrals to friends & family.